India’s Strategic Focus on Nigeria: A Gateway to West Africa   

Introduction

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Nigeria, his first in the third term and the first by an Indian PM in 17 years, underscores Nigeria’s strategic importance in India’s West Africa policy. This visit highlights India's commitment to strengthening ties with Africa’s largest economy and democracy, reflecting its vision for deeper engagement with the Global South.

India-Nigeria Bilateral Relations

Importance of Nigeria

• Largest Economy and Democracy in Africa: Nigeria holds the dual status of being the largest economy and democracy in the continent, making it a central player in African politics and economics.
• Regional Hegemon: Nigeria's influence extends across West Africa and into the African Union, serving as a critical voice for regional stability and development.
• Democratic Role Model: Known for its democratic resilience, Nigeria has mediated several disputes within Africa, enhancing its reputation as a stabilizing force.

Strategic Areas of Cooperation

• Defence:
  • Counterterrorism operations, particularly against Boko Haram.
  • Nigeria’s interest in arms procurement from India signals growing trust in India’s defence capabilities.
• Economy:
  • Partnerships in trade, energy, and technology aimed at diversifying Nigeria’s economy.
• Development Assistance:
  • India has provided concessional loans totaling $100 million.
  • Capacity-building programs reinforce a people-centric development model, focusing on education and skill enhancement.

Security and Defence Focus

• Challenges in Nigeria:
  • Ongoing threats like terrorism, separatism, piracy, and drug trafficking.
• India’s Contribution:
  • Strengthening Nigeria’s security through defence exports and collaborative strategies.
  • A key supplier of defence equipment and expertise, with recent initiatives aimed at bolstering Nigeria’s counterterrorism efforts.

Trade Dynamics

• Decline in Trade Volume:
  • Trade fell from $14.95 billion in 2021-22 to $7.89 billion in 2023-24.
  • This drop is largely attributed to India diversifying its oil imports, with a significant increase in purchases from Russia.
• Future Prospects:
  • Despite the decline, there is potential for diversification in trade relations, focusing on non-oil sectors.

Nigeria's Engagement with China

China's Strategic Presence

• Infrastructure Development:
  • China has funded $47 billion for 22 large-scale infrastructure projects in Nigeria.
  • Notable projects include the Lekki Deep Sea Port, Abuja Light Rail, and airport terminal expansions, showcasing China's substantial role in Nigeria’s infrastructure modernization.
  • These investments aim to address critical bottlenecks like cargo congestion, creating 170,000 jobs and boosting economic activity.
• Trade Relations:
  • Nigeria serves as China’s largest export market and second-largest trading partner in Africa, reflecting the deep economic interdependence between the two nations.
• Technology and Mining Investments:
  • Huawei's Role:
    • Deployment of 27,500 mobile towers and 10,000 km of fiber-optic cable.
    • Cybersecurity training for 3,000 Nigerian personnel.
  • Mining Sector:
    • Chinese companies like Ming Xin Mineral Separation Nig Ltd. are pivotal in building Nigeria’s first lithium-processing plant for EV batteries.

India vs. China

• Comparison:
  • China's Approach:
    • Heavy investments in infrastructure projects backed by significant financial loans.
    • Dominant presence in high-visibility sectors like ports, railways, and technology.
  • India's Approach:
    • Focuses on a people-centric model that emphasizes concessional loans, capacity building, and grassroots development through training programs.
    • Targets strategic sectors like defence, health, and education, with an aim to create long-term, sustainable partnerships.
• Opportunities for India:
  • Leverage its growing defence export capabilities to meet Nigeria's security needs.
  • Strengthen engagement in health, technology, and renewable energy to provide alternatives to Chinese dominance.
  • Position itself as a reliable and ethical development partner for Nigeria, contrasting with China's debt-driven infrastructure model.

India's Strategic Vision for Africa

India-Africa Relations

• Prime Minister Modi’s Earlier Engagements:
  • During his previous terms, PM Modi visited 10 African nations, including Uganda, where he outlined a long-term vision for India-Africa relations in his historic speech.
  • These engagements highlighted India’s commitment to fostering a sustainable and people-centric partnership with Africa.
• Focus on Nigeria as a Gateway to West Africa:
  • PM Modi’s recent visit to Nigeria, his first African destination in the third term, underlines Nigeria’s importance as a strategic entry point to West Africa.
  • Strengthening ties with Nigeria is expected to yield regional and pan-African benefits, amplifying India's influence across the continent.

Global South Leadership

• India and Nigeria as Global South Leaders:
  • Both nations share a history of advocating for the interests of developing countries, particularly in global forums such as the G20 and African Union.
  • The convergence of their visions positions them as pivotal leaders in championing the aspirations of the Global South.
• Significance of Enhanced Bilateral Relations:
  • Strengthening India-Nigeria ties can serve as a model for broader South-South Cooperation, fostering collaboration in areas such as trade, technology, health, and defence.
  • Enhanced bilateral relations could help counterbalance external influences (e.g., China's strategic presence) and promote a multipolar global order.

Key Challenges in India-Nigeria Relations

1. Decline in Trade Volume

• Reason:
  • India’s diversification of oil imports, particularly increased reliance on Russian oil, has led to a reduction in trade with Nigeria.
  • Trade volume dropped from $14.95 billion in 2021-22 to $7.89 billion in 2023-24, impacting the economic dynamics of the bilateral relationship.

2. Sustaining Goodwill and Converting It into Actionable Outcomes

• Challenge:
  • High-level visits, such as PM Modi’s recent trip, generate diplomatic goodwill, but translating this into tangible deliverables, like strengthened partnerships in defence, trade, or health, remains a challenge.
• Need for Follow-Up:
  • Ensuring sustained engagement and implementation of agreements to achieve long-term impact is essential for maintaining momentum.

3. Competing with China's Strategic Influence

• Massive Financial Investments:
  • China’s $47 billion funding for large-scale infrastructure projects and substantial trade presence provides a competitive edge.
• Technological Dominance:
  • Companies like Huawei and Chinese-led mining ventures give China an advantage in technology and critical resource sectors, such as EV battery production.
• India’s Opportunity:
  • To counterbalance, India must expand its footprint in defence, health, education, and renewable energy, areas where it offers distinct advantages.

Way Forward

Enhance Economic Ties

• Diversify trade relations beyond oil to include high-potential sectors such as education, pharmaceuticals, and renewable energy.
• Encourage Indian businesses to invest in Nigeria’s infrastructure projects, leveraging India’s expertise in sustainable development.

Deepen Defence Cooperation

• Expand India’s role as a defence supplier by boosting arms exports and offering advanced counterterrorism training programs.
• Initiate joint military exercises to strengthen strategic trust and collaboration.

Strengthen Developmental Engagement

• Increase the scale and scope of concessional loans and capacity-building initiatives, emphasizing India’s partnership model rooted in mutual benefit and sustainability.
• Highlight India’s people-centric development approach as a viable alternative to China’s debt-driven projects.

Promote People-to-People Ties

• Enhance engagement through educational scholarships, skill development programs, and healthcare initiatives for Nigerians.
• Foster cultural exchanges to build stronger bilateral understanding and goodwill at the grassroots level

Conclusion

• Nigeria holds a pivotal position in India's foreign policy as a gateway to West Africa and a strategic partner with immense economic and geopolitical significance. The deepening of India-Nigeria ties reflects India's commitment to fostering mutually beneficial relationships across Africa. However, sustaining the goodwill generated by high-level visits requires consistent diplomatic engagement and robust economic initiatives to transform potential into actionable outcomes.
• As leaders of the Global South, India and Nigeria have the capacity to champion equitable and inclusive development, setting an example of cooperation that prioritizes shared prosperity and sustainable growth. By strengthening its partnership with Nigeria, India not only bolsters its strategic presence in Africa but also reinforces its leadership in shaping a fairer, multipolar global order.